Marketing Safari

Blaming the media

I am usually a big fan of Seth Godin's writings, but this time I must disagree with him. In a post last Saturday Seth writes about a poll on CNBC's website where people could vote for the best candidate in the CNBC Republican candidate debate. CNBC put up a poll on their website and Ron Paul was the winner by far. CNBC found out that on chat rooms related to the candidate, his supporters were encouraging people to take part in the poll, which they obviously did.

"... polls done on the web are as far from scientific as possible (they don't even measure what the web thinks, never mind what everyone thinks) yet they are shrouded in the same respectability, the same graphs, the same nomenclature.

A web poll is nothing but a traffic stunt."

The failure and inaccuracy of this poll has got nothing to do with the web. The web is just a medium, like any other, nothing better, nothing worse. Well, actually both. It's got more possibilities and used correctly it's better, used incorrectly it's worse. But the web is just a channel to reach people like telephone lines.

The problem with the CNBC poll is not the medium. It's the methodology that is the problem. Put a poll on a website waiting for visitors to reply is liking putting a form out on the sidewalk waiting for passing by people to fill it out, or advertising a phone number for people to call and vote (like on Idol). It's a method that gives results that have got nothing to do with reality. Any group, formal or informal, can answer and manipulate the results.

I used to run large email lists here in Iceland. They included 1/6th of the nation of both sexes and all ages. Corrected for all demographic obscurities the polls committed through our database gave just as accurate results as polls conducted through traditional ways like telephone calls, if not better. At the same time they were both cheaper and faster. Some people argue that only tech savvy people use the Internet but at the same time you could say that old fashioned people use landlines.

The same rules apply for scientific research whether on the web or elsewhere. It's not the medium. It's the method that matters.

Hjörtur Smárason

Focus Groups Fail

Focus groups have been popular for marketing research for some decades now. But it seems their popularity is sliding and the reason is simple. They don't work. Over 90% of new product evaluations done by focus groups turned out to be incorrect and cost  companies a fortune.

The video below, which I got from Jeff Brooks (Donor Power Blog), is an excellent sample of how focus groups do not work:

Just think about it. Who are you going to get that is willing to spend a whole afternoon discussing an ad or a product for a $30 gift card? Is that the people you are targeting? Peer pressure is also a big factor in focus groups. One dominating voice can dominate what people say. In front of others (and a one way mirror and running cameras) people tend to say what they think people want to hear instead of what they truly think or feel. Thus the results are incorrect.

Online focus groups have turned out to be more accurate, cheaper and faster then the traditional one. Many companies specialize in ad and product evaluation via internet panels. They send the questions via email (or a link to an online questionnaire) and as it turns out people are much more willing to answer honestly when they are both anonymous and in private.

Ask online and you'll save both money and time. But do it professionally.

Hjörtur Smárason