I'm being asked by both my friends abroad and the media, what life is like in Iceland. Vanity Fair gave their version of the story, a rather negative picture. Unfortunately, though there are some wrongs in the article, there are too many rights. But here's a little insider information on life in Iceland at the moment, the psychological state of a nation that went from being the richest in the world to economic ruins over night. And the for the public, it really did happen over night.
The Psychology of the Society
I think the emotional pattern we've been going through here in Iceland is similar to mourning. At
first we were in disbelieve. Could this be for real? Were the banks,
our pride and "idols" really turned into dust over night? Were our prodigies just
fake from the beginning?
What would all this mean for the rest of us? This came as a
tremendous shock to the general public and for weeks pretty much
nothing happened here in Iceland. People were
in a state of shock, paralyzed, afraid of what was going to happen. It didn't
matter if people still had money or not, they didn't dare to spend
anything or to make any decisions.
Reykjavik. The cranes have stopped. On the right is the national concert and conference center, designed by Olafur Eliasson, still uncertain if or when it will be finished.
When people got over the shock, it was replaced with anger by many,
specially people who never enjoyed the affluence of other Icelanders,
who could not drive expensive cars, live in big houses and live like
kings, but were yet the ones who were left with the bill, inflation of
18%, outlook for unprecedented unemployment rates and foreign debt that
is going to be a burden on the whole society for generations. It is still unclear how much the debt is, but it looks like it will be over $30.000 USD per each and every person in the country. I have 5 children so that equals over $200.000 for my family.
In the new year, we have those who are in depression (who have themselves lost
their job) and others who are determined to work their way out of this.
Universities, companies, investors and individuals are trying to
create a fertile ground for creativity and innovation. Extra funding
has been provided both for early startups as well as startups that are
ready to go to market. What we are seeing is that the strongest
companies in Iceland today are companies that
are based on intelligence and creativity, companies like Lazy Town, CCP
(the computer games company behind EVE online), Marel (food processing
technology), other high tech and biotech companies and even artists
such as Bjork, SigurRós, the author Arnaldur Indridason and more. All
having a unique product that can be sold world wide and bring in very
needed foreign currency. Creating a new company gives hope of something
new that can be built up. And hope is something people really need to get through this. Recession is a time of new opportunities and
new beginnings. The challenge is to see those opportunities and grab
them.
The dirt is slowly being dug up. What we were made to believe were companies built on a new brilliant Icelandic business model driven by young, fast and clever people who were quick to make decisions, flexible and didn't let any old school protocols stop them, turns out to have been driven by greed and denial to the vulnerability of the business model and inexperience of the leaders. Foreign critics were accused of misinformation and envy.
My Reality
I bought it all, I participated in the craze, buying stocks in the banks and making good money from it, defending our system and criticizing those who "couldn't stand the success of this little nation". Today, that leaves me with shame. A shame for backing up the people who now leaves us in ruins and feeling like a fool for buying into this. And angry for the government and the central bank for allowing the bank system to grow to more than 10 times the size of our GDP risking that if the banks failed, they (we, the people) might have to pay it back. But that would never happen. I mean what was the chance of all three banks going bankrupt within one week? Unthinkable. But still, it happened.
Luckily, I did not borrow money to buy stocks, like many others did. I was not in heavy foreign debt like many others are. So I might survive this. But technically, a large percentage of Icelandic families and companies are bankrupt, with much higher debt than assets. The problem is, if the banks would confiscate it all, they wouldn't get any money at all. So the government is trying to create a system that helps families overcome their debt by changing their loans. It will take decades to pay it up. Many families are now stuck in debt for the rest of their lives.
I moved back to Iceland in 2005. Built a house that was valued for $1M when it was done. It looked as if it was a great move, to come to Iceland. Now, we're stuck here. Because of the crash of the currency and the falling real estate market, I might get $400.000 for my house now, wiping out most of my investment in the house. If it was at all possible to sell it. And just this morning, the remaining 0,2% of my stock vanished when the fourth bank was nationalized.
This is the grim reality of Iceland today. On the other hand, things are not as bad in general as people abroad imagine. We do have all necessities. We can get oil, medicine, bread, milk and fruits in the shops. We have plenty of electricity and heat as we produce it all from domestic renewable energy sources. We only use oil on transportation and we have enough oil for that too. Over 90% are still employed - and getting paid. We have good infrastructure, good health care, good education system. A few months ago we had the best living standard in the world. But we do rely heavily on imports and imported goods are very expensive now. And the variety we can choose from is much less than it was. The food basket is now 34% more expensive than it was 10 months ago.
As you know if you've been reading my blog, I wrote a book on recession marketing.
I have also been speaking on the issue and running courses which are
becoming increasingly popular. People are also realizing that the
biggest opportunities in marketing are in Internet Marketing, which
means that my service is in higher demand. This is all very good news
for me. But foreign projects are still what I'm looking for, as getting
paid in foreign currency is much better then our Krona. I've even had
opportunities to speak abroad, but as much as I would love to travel
the world and speak, I can't do it for free :)
Vanity Fair - Wall Street on the Tundra
Journalist Michael Lewis wrote an article for Vanity Fair about Iceland and the collapse. It's in general a negative image of Icelanders and my fellow country men are not happy about it, pointing out some misinformation and misunderstandings. Just like we usually do when someone criticizes us. The Icelandic attitude is that they're always wrong 'cause we're simply the best in the world (we constantly try to convince us of that). Just look at all the "per capita" world records we hold. We have Nobel Prize winners, Olympic medalist, Grammy winners, Oscar nominees, have the most cars, drink the most Coca Cola, have the most over prized Big Mac, the world's strongest men and the world's most beautiful women etc. Yes, we do have things we can still be proud off, but despite all that, we are not above criticism. There's a lot that can be better in Iceland and for many parts, the critic in the Vanity Fair article is correct. That's maybe the problem. It hit's a soft spot. What I don't like though in the article is the notion that Iceland is a sexist country, where men run the show. It's not. Surely, some professions are dominated by one sex over the other and the investment banking was one of them. But in general, gender equality is very good, though it can always be better. The now minister of education even managed to get me to play with Barbie once, the only time I did so (but please, don't tell anyone ;).
The head of the National bank is said to be a poet and the minister of finance a vet. True. Now we have a new government where the Prime Minister is a stewardess and the minister of finance is a geologist. So we're no better off regarding academic training of our leaders. There will be an election on April 25th and people were hoping for some new, fresh and qualified people. Unfortunately, politics is not the most appealing carrier at the moment and not many brave enough to take on the enormous task waiting the new government.
Returning to old values is becoming a trend. Fish has become significantly cheaper. Fishing has become significantly more important, like it always used to be. Aluminum seems to be the hope of many still, though the aluminum prices have dropped and aluminum has already become too big of a portion of Icelandic economy, not to mention pollution. We are going whaling again. But that's survival, not restoration.
Hvalur 8, a whaling ship being prepared to go back on sea after 20 years tied to dock.
Innovation
We do have talented people and as I mentioned earlier, our talents and mind power are now our biggest asset. The government has been starting some initiatives to spark more innovation and help prosperous companies to market. Reykjavik University together with the Icelandic Academy for the Arts is also creating a venue leading together creatives and business minded people. Part of that project is a local physical location, a meeting place where people can seek advice and shelter for their start-ups and innovation projects in Iceland. The other part of the project is an International online social network for innovators where they can seek advice and support for their ideas and innovations, find partners and even capital. I'm leading the online project and will let you know when it goes live.
The grass root has been active too, and every Saturday, the "ministry of ideas" meets to discuss different aspects of the innovation and start-up process. Those meetings have been very popular and very fruitful for those participating.
Innovation is good and definitely the right way to go. But let's not forget that it usually takes years before start-ups start generating some real income. So getting present start-up companies to market should also be a priority.
The Land of Opportunities
Don't sign off Iceland. We've had setbacks before. We have a lot of talent, intelligence and experience that will be directed in new directions now and I believe we will work our way out of this fast. While we are in this economic situation, there are some great opportunities for foreigners.
Since all infrastructure is functioning and your safety not jeopardized in any way, Iceland has become a very hot spot for tourists in the recession. You can get better deals than ever before because of the fall of the Krona and many are grabbing that opportunity.
Venture capitalists also see opportunities in the blooming innovation culture here in Iceland, where highly educated people can now work for half the wages they could a year ago (calculated in Dollars). That means development cost just got significantly reduced and the competitiveness of Icelandic companies on the International market drastically improved.
Icelandic export products, Icelandic art and design and the Icelandic horse are all selling well now, since they too are only half price compared to a year ago. This means many export branches are growing fast now. We still have a bright future, though the days are dark at the moment.
So if you need any help in finding opportunities in Iceland during the recession, just let me know.
Cheers
Hjörtur